Irruptive Outbreak Forecast 2025-2026
You can access the latest Irruptive Outbreak Forecast for Winter 2025-2026 HERE
Forecast Overview
Our forecast predicts the chances of salmonellosis outbreaks and avian irruptions in the upcoming winter season (November - April).
Although primarily spread among songbirds, salmonellosis outbreaks can “spill over” into human populations or to domestic animals.
To create these forecasts, we rely on ecological connections between climate cues, the production of pine cones, the irregular migrations of birds, and salmonellosis outbreaks. You can read more about the methodology in an upcoming paper.
These forecasts integrate available information about each of these processes to make predictions about the likelihood of outbreaks and irruptions in the winter season. Like weather forecasts, the ecological forecast presented here are not 100% certain.
Signs of Salmonella infection in birds
- Ruffled feathers, “puffed-up” appearance
- Lethargic, easy to approach, and unwilling to move
- Trouble swallowing
- Diarrhea
What to do if you observe an sick/dead bird infected with Salmonella
- Remove your feeders and bird baths for at least two weeks and as long as outbreaks persist in your area.
- Keep your pets away from sick/dead birds and areas around feeders and bird baths.
- Contact your local wildlife health agency.
- If recommended by your local wildife health agency, dispose of any dead birds in the trash using a gloved hand or plastic bag.
- Make sure to wash your hands with soap and water after disposing of a dead bird or after cleaning feeders.
Sources
Information presented here above is derived from national and local wildlife health agencies and academic institutions:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Canadian Wildlife Health Cooperative