Rare Bird Forecast BETA
The Rare Bird Forecast is currently hibernating for the winter. You can sign up to get an email notifiying you when it is back online by clicking HERE. In the meantime, you can check out historical forecasts below.
This forecast uses current geomagnetic conditions (and some other stuff) to predict the appearance of vagrant birds during the spring and fall migration seasons. You can read more about the methodology in Tonelli et al, 2023. If you are interested, check out this recent paper on the same phenomenon, measured via radar.
While you are here:
The Rare Bird Forecast relies on real-time data from the Space Weather Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). As you may be aware, the Trump administration initiated mass firings at NOAA in Feb. 2025, and are proposing even wider cuts. In addition to other avoidable problems, NOAAs Space Weather Prediction Center has seen delays in data reporting of upcoming solar storms, information that could potentially mitigate catastrophic damage to global satellite, communication networks, and the power grid that occurs during these events.
NOAA is a miniscule part of the federal budget (a total of 6.3 billion per year, constituting less than 0.1% of spending). Despite its relatively small budget, NOAA provides a ton of critical weather information to other public agencies and the private sector free of charge. This information is both life-saving and cost-saving. In the past five years, severe weather events in the U.S. have killed 2,500 people, and led to at least $746 billion worth of damage.
With this in mind, please take this opportunity to consider how this administration’s actions to reduce scientific output and services may ultimately affect you and your family.
If you would like to speak up, please contact your representatives