Our ecological model links climate signals, conifer seed crops, and irruptive finch movements to predict the likelihood of salmonellosis outbreaks in North America.
Salmonellosis
Outbreak likelihood is predicted separately for Western and Eastern North America. Risk is expressed relative to the historical average across all forecast years.
Cone crops are predicted to be below average across Western forests this season, increasing the likelihood of an irruption for nearly every species modeled here. Red-breasted Nuthatch and Pine Siskin are the most likely to irrupt.
Eastern cone crops are also predicted to run below average this year. Nearly every species is forecast to irrupt – most notably White-winged Crossbill and Pine Siskin.
In-Season Monitoring
Once the winter season of 2026–27 gets underway, Pine Siskin sightings reported to eBird will appear here too.
Bars show predicted irruption risk relative to the long-run average. A bar extending right means an irruption risk is elevated; left means an irruption is less likely than normal.
Methodology
Salmonellosis outbreaks in humans and wildlife are connected to climate through a chain of ecological processes that unfold over the course of the year.
Full methodology is described in: Tonelli et al. (2026). An ecological cascade links climatic variability to avian irruptions and zoonotic salmonellosis.
Public Guidance
Knowing what to look for — and how to respond — can protect your household, pets, and local birds during an outbreak.