Current and predicted vagrancy conditions

Geomagnetic Vagrancy Conditions

Geomagnetic vagrancy conditions in Fall 2024 have been Low, and are expected to stay about the same over the next 2 weeks. Conditions are determined here by the factors that influence a bird’s ability to use the Earth’s geomagnetic field to navigate during migration.

Species Richness Trends

Seasonality

The chance to see a rare bird is also determined by seasonality. Here, the relative number of banded species for this week is indicated by color scale, with +, - and = signs indicating where richness is increasing, decreasing, or staying about the same. Data from USGS Bird Banding Lab (BBL).

Species Demographic Trends

Demographics

You are more likely to see a vagrant bird if the species is doing well demographically. Unfortunately, many bird species are in decline. But some species are doing well! Above shows the population trajectories for an increasing and decreasing species (updated daily). Data from USGS Breeding Bird Survey (BBS).

Vagrancy Conditions

Geomagnetic Disturbance

Solar Activity

About

This dashboard is designed to be used as a tool for US birders and twitchers to evaluate the likelihood of seeing a rare bird. This tool integrates three known factors influencing vagrancy - current space weather conditions, seasonality, and demography - to predict the likelihood of seeing a rare bird. Please send questions/comments/suggestions to rarebirdforecast@gmail.com