Column
Current and predicted vagrancy conditions
Vagrancy conditions in spring 2022 have been moderate, and are expected to decrease over the next 14 days. Vagrancy conditions are determined here by the factors that influence a bird’s ability to use the Earth’s geomagnetic field to navigate during migration.
Species Richness Trends
The chance to see a rare bird is also determined by seasonality. Here, the relative number of species for this week is indicated by color scale, and +, - and = signs indicate where richness is increasing, decreasing, or staying about the same.
Random Species Vagrancy Trends
Vagrancy varies year-to-year for each species. Here is the trend for one random species (updated daily).
Column
Vagrancy Conditions
Current vagrancy conditions
Geomagnetic Disturbance
Current magnetic field distortion
Solar Activity
Current solar activity conditions
About
This dashboard is designed to be used as a tool for birders and twitchers to evaluate the likelihood of seeing a rare bird. This tool integrates three known factors influencing vagrancy - current space weather conditions, seasonality, and demography - to predict the likelihood of seeing a rare bird. Avian vagrancy can be caused by a number of factors including population trends and space weather. Please send questions/comments/suggestions to rarebirdforecast@gmail.com