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Current and predicted vagrancy conditions

Vagrancy conditions in spring 2022 have been moderate, and are expected to decrease over the next 14 days. Vagrancy conditions are determined here by the factors that influence a bird's ability to use the Earth's geomagnetic field to navigate during migration.

Vagrancy conditions in spring 2022 have been moderate, and are expected to decrease over the next 14 days. Vagrancy conditions are determined here by the factors that influence a bird’s ability to use the Earth’s geomagnetic field to navigate during migration.

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Vagrancy Conditions

Current vagrancy conditions

Geomagnetic Disturbance

Current magnetic field distortion

Solar Activity

Current solar activity conditions

About

This dashboard is designed to be used as a tool for birders and twitchers to evaluate the likelihood of seeing a rare bird. This tool integrates three known factors influencing vagrancy - current space weather conditions, seasonality, and demography - to predict the likelihood of seeing a rare bird. Avian vagrancy can be caused by a number of factors including population trends and space weather. Please send questions/comments/suggestions to